Wars and the sanctions, shipping reroutes, and border restrictions that follow them don't announce themselves on a brand's production calendar. A raw material that was reliably available last quarter can become unobtainable, delayed, or suddenly tariffed, and formulators are often the last to know until a batch is stuck.
The brands that weather this best aren't the ones with the cheapest inputs; they're the ones with flexible formulation and diversified sourcing built in before a crisis hits. That means qualifying backup suppliers, understanding which actives have viable substitutes, and working with manufacturing partners who track geopolitical risk in their supply base rather than reacting to it after the fact.
This is also where regional manufacturing capacity matters. Producing closer to the US and LATAM markets you're selling into, with ingredient sourcing that isn't entirely dependent on one contested region, shortens the chain of things that can break. It won't insulate a brand from every disruption, but it reduces how many single points of failure sit between a formula and a finished product on shelf. Buyers should ask contract manufacturers now how they'd handle a sourcing shock, not after one happens.